Over the past two weeks Zimbabwean politics has taken an interesting turn and the usual knee jerk analysts are failing to comprehend the situation and its implications.
Many have dismissed Ncube as power hungry, but no one has ever thought that maybe Ncube really was not bothered to take up the post.
Let’s look at preceding events, Ncube said recalling was not in their agenda, so what drove him to “demote” Mutambara.
He knew that Mugabe will refuse to fire Mutambara, so what this does is it puts Ncube in the limelight, portraying him as a victim of the “big guys”, Zanu PF and MDC-T.
Secondly and more importantly it panders to the tribal emotions which have been bubbling under for a while.
Mugabe, Mutambara and Tsvangirai (thanks mainly to his silence on the issue) are now coming out as ethnic chauvinists, who do not want Ncube because he does not belong to their tribe.
This may sound farfetched but there is precedence. When Tsvangirai reshuffled his cabinet, Mugabe did not bat an eyelid. But then as now there was a feeling that politicians from Matabeleland had been the victims of that reshuffle.
So while to the ordinary and myopic analysts, Mugabe and Mutambara may seem to be on the ascendancy on the contrary they have fallen into a trap set by Ncube, who has been quite calculating and far sighted than they have.
Tsvangirai also will not come out unscathed. For all his flip flopping, he has always claimed to be an advocate for democracy, if he is silent about Mutambara’s continued stay in government then he is complicit in an unconstitutional development.
While the congress that elected Ncube is subject to a court hearing, it is the national council meeting that set on Thursday that is the most crucial. The national council is the highest organ between congresses and yes it has to the right to fire anyone.
Tsvangirai, unfortunately, will be the biggest loser in the sense that a substantial percentage of his party votes came from Matabeleland and he risks losing that as Ncube may be the recipient of a sympathy vote, a victim of Shona supremacy and chauvinism.
Already there is growing sentiment that Matabeleland is being unfairly treated and there is increasing militancy from people of that region.
More often than not there is a tendency to ignore such calls and dismissing them as being unfounded.
Recently there has been the growth of the Mthwakazi Liberation Front and Zapu and these are as a direct result of this growing frustration that the Shonas want to monopolise power and pay scant regard to the Ndebele, whose importance is only hyped at election time.
Wise counsel, Tsvangirai should be a statesman and address the deteriorating situation he has a lot riding on this. As for Mugabe he hardly cares he has achieved in dividing the already fragmented opposition.
As for the Matabeleland vote, Mugabe is contemptuous of it, he hardly gets any votes there and he is not about to get any.